Keywords: Arctic, climate change, Northern Sea Route, data connectivity, the future of the Law of the Sea
Chang Qu is an EPL student at the University of Eastern Finland. She is interested in climate change and the Law of the Sea.
Andrei Evgrafov, a student in the Master’s Degree Program (MDP) in Environmental Policy and Law at the same university, is interested in climate change mitigation, water and marine governance.
Dramatic evidence of climate change is here — temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at least three times the global annual average. The continuous melting of the sea ice has made it easier for ships to enter the Arctic Ocean Route, and the accumulation of heat has led to longer navigation season.
Based on this, Russia and China hope to expand the development and utilization of NSR, strengthen cooperation in the Arctic region, and establish the “Polar Silk Road”. This blog post discusses how Arctic warming has made the NSR more accessible, analyzes the potential benefits of Russia and China, and the future of the law of the sea in the context of sea ice melt.
The NSR is More Accessible
According to recent findings, global warming has led to the continuous melting of Arctic Sea ice, with the 12 lowest ice extents recorded from 2007 to 2023, and the continued melting may lead to an ice-free Arctic region, making it easier for ships to enter the route and extending the navigation season. In addition, climate change has caused the continuous thinning of sea ice, reducing the frequency of use of icebreakers and transportation costs. Moreover, the constant melting of the sea ice has made it possible to establish new routes, reducing distances and time, all these factors have made the NSR more accessible to navigating activities.
Benefits of Russia and Relevant Policies
Amidst the eight states geographically located in the Arctic—Canada, the USA (via Alaska), Russia, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Iceland, and Denmark (via Greenland and the Faroe Islands)—Russia has most of the Arctic Ocean within its Exclusive Economic Zone, with a coastline stretching over 24,000 kilometers.
Today, Russia is undoubtedly interested in the compliance of all Parties with the provisions of UNCLOS, since the mechanisms of territorial claims established by the Convention allow for the extension of the continental shelf subject to scientific justification.
The map shows the progressive extension of Russia’s continental shelf as submitted to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS).
Despite the participation of the Arctic states in UNCLOS and other multilateral agreements, the Arctic is in fact dominated by regionalism in some issues, which is also manifested at the level of the Arctic shipping routes — Transpolar Sea Route, Northern Sea Route, North-West Passage — a geographically determined separation that leads to the establishment of different strategic alliances.
In this case, it is not only about the transportation of goods; data is the new oil. Russia is laying a trans-Arctic submarine communications cable along the Northern Sea Route. Stretching 12,650 kilometers with a capacity of up to 104 Tb/s, it will connect Europe and Asia via the shortest path. This infrastructure will meet the growing demand for high-speed data transfer needed for modern technologies, including e-commerce, blockchain networks, cryptocurrency transactions, streaming, cloud computing, and big data analytics.
Of course, the realization of such projects would be impossible without global warming and Russia is one of its beneficiaries.
In official climate doctrine (article 48), Russia points out the possible positive outcomes of climate change: improvement of ice conditions and, consequently, conditions of cargo transportation in the Arctic seas, facilitating access to and development of the Arctic shelves.
The development of the Northern Sea Route will also allow Russia to quickly and efficiently deliver natural resources from Russian regions rich in them, which do not have sufficient land transportation (such as Yakutia, which is slightly smaller than India).
Benefits of China and Relevant Policies
China is one of the countries closest to the Arctic Circle on land among the world’s non-Arctic countries. Therefore, as a stakeholder, China aims to increase its participation in Arctic affairs and establish its own “polar power” by 2035.
In 2018, the Chinese government released its first Arctic policy document, “China’s Arctic Policy.” Based on this white paper, China emphasized the development and utilization of the Arctic Sea Route, and initiated other countries to incorporate the Arctic into its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to the “Polar Silk Road”.
In recent years, specific Arctic waters have been “ice-free” for more than 30 days in the summer, making commercial navigation possible in the NSR, this route is China’s shortest maritime route connecting Europe and Asia. Therefore, the accessibility of the NSR can not only promote the diversification of maritime economic routes, but also disperse the security risks of maritime transportation. Eventually, this route will effectively drive China’s in-depth participation in the development of the Arctic.
The Road Ahead for the New Routes’ Regulation
The regulatory measures governing shipping routes are mainly reflected in Article 234 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, whose legislative purpose is to protect the marine environment in the Arctic region. However, in the context of the melting of the sea ice due to climate change, we need to rebalance the interests of national navigation and the purpose of Arctic environmental protection.
The Arctic paths are not only related to the interests of the Arctic countries and non-Arctic countries but also the well-being of all mankind. Regulating the New Routes requires stakeholders’ engagement and cooperation. Therefore, replacing unilateral legislation with a governance regime based on shared benefits is the road ahead for the new routes’ regulation.
Andrei 
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